Playoff Thrills and Card-Collecting Strategies

Well folks, here we are again. The thrill of playoff moments grows more distant by the day and the only professional “major” sports on are baseball and golf (depending on your golf views). I’m glad it went 7 and the small market teams put on an awesome show. It just really sucks to see Haliburton go down early. Who knows if they win, but I can’t imagine how he’s feeling. Gave it all for this team and knew he was at a high risk for an Achilles injury if he played but had to tough it out. An unbelievable run falls just short. Congrats to the Thunder!

It’s summer and it’s time to take a break from card collecting, obsessing over future forecasts of silly artistic cardboard, scrolling the marketplace for deals… for some maybe. For others, the real season has begun! During this blog I’m going to unspool my thoughts on card buying strategies and who I think are good projected buys for NFL, MLB, and NBA. Since it’s my own blog I’m not sure a disclaimer is needed but just in case... these are my predictions based on personal research and time spent in the hobby/marketplaces. Invest at your own risk; everything can change in an instant.

Card Shows

The obvious rule of thumb if going as a collector is don’t sell because they will pay 80%. That being said, if you really want a card and want to use it for trade-in, there’s nothing wrong with that and they need to make their end too. Many vendors will get to 90% of their sticker and I advise steering clear of negotiating with anyone who has their cards highly overpriced from the start. I’ve found there’s no good faith negotiating to be done, the plan is just to whittle you to about 110% comp (comp means compensation or average value/recent sale prices). Don’t be the buyer at a show aggressively lowballing with the, “I’m saving you time and seller fees on eBay” argument. There are BIG buyer fees and the point is to make it convenient for all sides. Don’t be a putz.

Growing the Stalk: Where to plant your beans - NFL

The king of American professional sports and with it the king of the hobby. NFL cards seem to be hot all year but peak collector excitement and overpay potential is coming. People are starved for football and now that we’ve hit the dead zone this will peak once pads are on. If investing, the clear-cut answer is and will always be rookie QBs. Factors depend on many things including availability, auto (sticker or on card), relic (in-game or random) and raw or graded. Even if graded, is it PSA? I was naïve and thought others would catch up and garner more credibility but unless Beckett (preferably black) good luck on the return. I hope this changes soon and the consistency of scores levels out but with the Pokémon burst ever expanding I’m not optimistic.

Buy

Right now I’m focusing on rookie PSA 10 auctions for a few reasons. I’m not one who is against buying raw cards but it’s a pretty stark difference in value and with the variance in grading right now I just don’t want to try. By no means is it a perfect plan but I’ve been searching for rookie QB graded downtowns, on-card auto, kaboom, and multi-color relics. The thought process isn’t overly profound; buy in a lull and sell when anything big happens with the player. I’m not saying these are cheap cards at the moment but they should gain value barring injury setbacks. Somewhat recently I purchased a few PSA 9 high-end Downtowns that I thought were going to boom but the market has spoken and a 9 is not

going to sell for anything near a 10. I’m still hopeful the flip can be successful but warn anyone that right now a PSA 9 seems to carry little more value than raw.

Bo Nix, Drake Maye, and JJ are still relatively affordable with the chance for a big flip come September. I am hesitant buying raw because I’m seeing 3+ month turnarounds and can’t risk the iron cooling. The wide receiver market changes frequently as does RB but go for longevity and set a price. Brenden Rice is a super cheap buy I like right now because his dad is Jerry freaking Rice, if nothing else he’s going to work! Basic take but I’ve been collecting a decent Travis Hunter collection which I think will age well and a few Shadeur I’m not nearly as confident about. The NFL card market is about to flip on its head when Topps regains licensing rights this year. Will downtowns gain value due to scarcity? Will they lose a LOT of value because Panini will flood the market with everything they have left before their licensing expires? I wish I could speak to this further but there’s a lot of grey area I’m interested in exploring. For those of us with plenty of Midnight products, the autographs could take a hit but the rookies should hold value. Not NFL related but if curious my current main collect is Ichiro. I think he’s being undervalued and will boom when he joins the hall.

What’s Next?

Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams markets have stayed high and I can only see Caleb’s growing. This is not due to fandom, Jayden’s bar is set so high and Chicago craves even decent QB play and will buy like crazy. If you’re waiting for a preseason spike that is well warranted but if seeking a performance increase it’s a hefty bet. I’m at a crossroads currently and have been on a buy-heavy streak predominantly on eBay. I have a LOT of raw cards and needed to update my higher-end PSA collection before the season kicks off. Maybe unwarranted, but I’m staying away from any grading after 6/1 in fears of a 3+ month wait and losing steam on some cards. I want to let the backlog (hopefully) cool and see if any other requirements change. My issue is, as always, limiting the hobby rips because it adds up quickly and can’t even pretend it’s an investment! If you made it here I really appreciate the read and hope you reach out with any recommended blogs, cards, or content. As always, happy hobbying!